Starts fall again as the market finds its balance
Housing starts kept falling in July, extending a three-month slide even as bond yields eased and CREA's national sales data pointed to a market settling rather than swinging. Ontario's regulator wants its fees back up, New York investors are circling a Toronto REIT, and Quebec's construction rules keep landing on tenants and owners instead of the industry that built them. Nothing dramatic today, but plenty for agents managing renewals, listings and client expectations through a market that's finally gone quiet.
The Numbers
229,074
Housing starts fell to 229,074 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, down from 240,773 in June and 254,178 in May. Three straight monthly declines point to a supply pipeline that keeps thinning even as demand shows early signs of steadying.
Rates & Money
Five-year yield eases again (1 minute read)
The five-year Government of Canada bond yield slipped to 3.29% on Tuesday, down from 3.31% the day before. Fixed mortgage pricing tracks this yield closely, so lenders have a little more room to trim rates this week.
Shelter costs tick higher
Statistics Canada's shelter component of CPI rose to 190.3 in July from 190.2 in June and 190.1 in May. The climb is slow, but it keeps shelter inflation running ahead of the broader basket.
U.S. yields hit a fresh high (2 minute read)
A deepening global bond selloff pushed the U.S. ten-year yield to its highest level since early last year, Canadian Mortgage Trends reports. Thin August trading and worries over inflation and a wave of new corporate debt are driving the move, and Canadian borrowing costs tend to feel the ripple.
The Market
National sales cool from last year, firm up on the month (1 minute read)
The Canadian Real Estate Association says July home sales trailed year-ago levels but ticked higher against June, a pattern CREA describes as a market moving toward balance. Fewer new listings alongside modest sales gains suggest bidding pressure is easing without tipping into a rout.
Quebec's builders pass regulation costs to buyers and renters (7 minute read)
La Presse reports that a mounting pile of construction rules and fees in Quebec ends up on the tab of homeowners and tenants, not the industry pushing for them. One economist likens it to a candy dish everyone insists they'll only dip into once, until everyone takes their share and the bill lands somewhere else.
Condo owners turn into landlords by accident (7 minute read)
A soft condo market and shifting life plans are pushing some first-time Toronto buyers to rent out units they'd meant to live in, the Globe and Mail reports. It's a quiet sign of how stuck resale condo pricing has become in parts of the country.
Industry
RECO wants its fee cuts back (2 minute read)
Ontario's regulator is proposing to reverse fee reductions it made a few years back, pointing to a growing gap between what it collects and what it spends on registrant oversight. If approved, brokers and salespeople would see their dues climb back toward earlier levels.
New York investors line up a takeover of Toronto's H&R REIT (4 minute read)
A group of New York real estate investors has tabled a takeover bid for Toronto-based H&R REIT, according to the Globe and Mail. If unitholders at both H&R and GO approve, GO would become one of the largest residential landlords in the country, reshaping who owns a meaningful share of Canadian rental stock.
The Playbook
Waiting on your mortgage renewal costs you options (2 minute read)
Canadian Mortgage Professional flags a pattern worth repeating to renewing clients: the longer they wait to start shopping their renewal, the fewer lenders and terms are actually on the table. Get them talking to a broker or their bank well before the renewal date lands, not the week of.
The High End
A split Cabbagetown house sells just under ask (2 minute read)
A Toronto semi-detached home carved out of a single Victorian house, complete with an unusual 'half' address, sold just below its asking price, the Globe and Mail reports. It's a reminder that oddities in a property's history rarely scare off buyers in this neighbourhood; they just add a story to the listing.
The Argument
Foch: a boring market isn't a bad one (7 minute read)
REM columnist Foch argues Canada's housing market is settling into balance rather than swinging back toward boom or bust, and says that's worth welcoming rather than dreading. His point for agents: stop bracing for the next big move and start pricing for the market that's actually here.
Marr: co-ownership deals are turning into disputes (8 minute read)
Financial Post's Garry Marr argues that shared-ownership arrangements, popular when prices only ever seemed to rise, are now leaving co-owners underwater and fighting over who eats the loss. But the wealthiest partner in these deals is often the one left holding the property when it doesn't sell.
Design & Living
Freshen the living room before fall showings (4 minute read)
Azure rounds up furnishings and fixtures meant to reset a living room for its busiest season. Worth flagging to sellers staging a fall listing: small, inexpensive swaps in the room buyers linger in longest can do more than a repaint.
The Long Game
Women in mortgage: the path so far, and what's next (3 minute read)
Canadian Mortgage Professional profiles the route women in the mortgage industry have travelled and what still stands between here and parity at senior levels. It's a useful read for brokerages thinking about who they're promoting, and why.
Quick Hits
Banff loses a housing program for the at-risk (4 minute read)
A short-term housing program in Banff has been suspended after losing a key source of funding, adding pressure to an already tight Bow Valley shelter system.
Halifax's Windsor Street Exchange enters major construction (5 minute read)
Crews are moving into the most significant stage of the Windsor Street Exchange redevelopment in Halifax, Daily Commercial News reports.